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The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk is an interdisciplinary research centre focused on the study of risks threatening human extinction that may emerge from technological advances. CSER aims to combine key insights from the best minds across disciplines to tackle the greatest challenge of the coming century: safely harnessing our rapidly-developing technological power.

An existential risk is one that threatens the existence of our entire species. The Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) — a joint initiative between philosopher Huw Price, cosmologist Martin Rees, and software entrepreneur Jaan Tallinn — was founded on the conviction that these risks require a great deal more scientific investigation than they presently receive. The Centre’s aim is to develop a new science of existential risk, and to develop protocols for the investigation and mitigation of technology-driven existential risks. 

The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk

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Zeitgeber (Lucy & Speedy J) 7h set @ Trouw, 07.12.2013

Nina Kraviz launches her трип (pronounced ‘trip’) label with a double-EP compilation entitled ’The Deviant Octopus’, featuring a pair of brand new productions from Kraviz alongside material from Terrence Dixon, emerging talent Parrish Smith & Bjarki, and veteran producers Exos & Steve Stoll.  

Stream Nina Kraviz - IMPRV in full here and head to the трип soundcloud page for a taster of the full EP: https://soundcloud.com/triprecordings/sets/trp001-the-deviant-octopus

TRP001 ’The Deviant Octopus" is now available worldwide on vinyl. 
http://www.juno.co.uk/products/the-deviant-octopus/556371-01/
http://www.phonicarecords.com/product/nina-kraviz-steve-stoll-bjar-the-deviant-octopus-lp-trip/126584
http://www.deejay.de/TRP001_-_Nina_Kraviz_Steve_Stoll_Bjarki_Population_One_Exos_Parrish_Smith_-_The_Deviant_Octopus_2x12_-_Vinyl__166766

All tracks on ‘The Deviant Octopus’ feature on Nina Kraviz’s DJ Kicks compilation, out 26 January 2015 on !K7 Records.  Pre-order the album at http://geni.us/NinaKravizDJKicks 


Nina Kraviz - IMPRV (The Deviant Octopus EP)

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Deep & Sexy Podcast #16 - December 2014

What better way to kick off a new year than with a new project? Sure, podcasts are nothing new, but by now the Dekmantel family has grown to the point where we have a lot to shout about. The DJ collective, festival and label are all well established, but we feel we need even more outlets for all the great music we have from our extended family. As such, we are launching a new weekly series that will showcase exclusive mixes from our favourite friends and freaks, with Marcel Dettmann going first. 

Aside from being a supremely tall and long haired human being, Marcel Dettmann is of course one of the techno powerhouses behind Berghain. It is his long, seductive and firmly rooted techno sets that have made the Berlin club, and man himself, so hallowed around the world. Also a fine producer who lays down his own brand of concrete funk on labels like Ostgut Ton, 50Weapons and his own eponymous label, he inaugurates our series with a very special live recording then from New Year’s Eve 2014 at Berghain. The resulting 90 minute set is everything it should be - supple and seductive, then freaky and funky, then deliciously dark and increasingly weird towards the end, so enjoy the ride. 

Dekmantel Podcast 001 - Marcel Dettmann

Taylor Swift - Bad Blood - Cover by Ali Brustofski - Official
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Bad Blood - Taylor Swift - Cover By Ali Brustofski

Speaker(s): Professor Lord Stern of Brentford | Introducing his new book, Why Are We Waiting? The Logic, Urgency and Promise of Tackling Climate Change Professor Stern will argue that the transition to a low-carbon economy and rapid structural transformations to the world economy provide a story of growth and poverty reduction that is attractive and sustainable. Nicholas Stern is IG Patel Professor and Chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at LSE and President of the British Academy. Craig Calhoun (@craigjcalhoun) is Director and President of LSE.  The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment (@GRI_LSE) is a research centre at LSE. The Institute’s research looks at the economics of climate change, and aims to inform policy and academic debate. The Centre for Economic Performance (@CEP_LSE) is an interdisciplinary research centre at the LSE Research Laboratory. It was established by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) in 1990 and is now one of the leading economic research groups in Europe. Credits: Tom Sturdy (Audio Post-Production), LSE AV Services (Audio Recording).

Why Are We Waiting? The Logic, Urgency and Promise of Tackling Climate Change [Audio]

Speaker(s): Richard Dobbs, Jonathan Woetzel, Stephanie Flanders | Since the start of the new century, the world has started to change - and radically. The collision of four global forces means we are now living in an era of near constant discontinuity. Competitors can burst upon the scene in a blink of an eye. Businesses that were protected by large and deep moats find that their defences are easily breached. Vast new markets are conjured seemingly from nothing. Five years is an eternity. In a new book, No Ordinary Disruption, the three leaders of the McKinsey Global Institute, McKinsey's business and economics research arm, argue that the world is now roughly in the middle of a dramatic transition as a result of four fundamental disruptive trends: growth and urbanisation in emerging markets, technological disruption, increasing connectivity, and the ageing of populations. None of these disruptions, on its own, is a surprise. The unique challenge is that they are happening at the same time - and on a huge scale, creating second-, third-, and even fourth-order effects that are scarcely possible to anticipate. As they collide, they will produce change so significant that much of the management intuition that has served us in the past will become irrelevant, causing us to reset our collective intuition. This event marks the publication of No Ordinary Disruption. Richard Dobbs is a Director of the McKinsey Global Institute (@McKinsey_MGI), McKinsey & Company’s economics and business research arm, and a Director (Senior Partner) of McKinsey, based in London.  He joined the firm in 1988, and more recently from 2004 to 2009 co-led its Corporate Finance Practice. From 2009, Richard has co-led the McKinsey Global Institute, first from South Korea and then from London.  He is a co-author of Value, the Four Cornerstones of Corporate Finance, published in November 2010, and his work has appeared in several books, including Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies, and Korea 2020 – Global Perspectives for the next decade. Richard received a B.A. in engineering, economics, and management at Oxford University, where he obtained a first-class degree. Based in Shanghai, Jonathan Woetzel is a director of the McKinsey Global Institute and leads McKinsey research on China, Asia, and global economic and business trends. As leader of the firm’s Cities Initiative, he has conducted more than 60 projects for governments throughout China to support local economic development and transformation. He also supports the transformation of Chinese companies into global leaders. Stephanie Flanders (@MyStephanomics​) is Managing Director and Chief Market Strategist for the UK and Europe, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.  Stephanie was previously the Economics Editor at the BBC.  Prior to this, she worked as a reporter at the New York Times, a speechwriter and senior adviser to US Treasury Secretaries Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers, a Financial Times leader-writer and columnist, and an economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the London Business School. Credits: Tom Sturdy (Audio Post-Production), LSE AV Services (Audio Recording).

No Ordinary Disruption: the four global forces breaking all the trends [Audio]

Speaker(s): Dr Alina Averchenkova, Professor John Broome, Professor Robyn Eckersley, Fergus Green | Tackling climate change is crucial for human well-being. So why has the international community been faltering on effective climate action? How can we break through the collective-action impasse? Alina Averchenkova is Co-Head of Climate Policy in the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at LSE. John Broome is Emeritus White’s Professor of Moral Philosophy at the University of Oxford. Robyn Eckersley is Professor of Political Science in the School of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Melbourne. Fergus Green is Policy Analyst and Research Advisor to Professor Stern in the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at LSE.

International Cooperation and Climate Change [Audio]

Speaker(s): Professor Fawaz Gerges | Fawaz A. Gerges is Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), and holder of the Emirates Professorship in Contemporary Middle East Studies. He wasalso the inaugural Director of the LSE Middle East Centre from 2010 until 2013. Gerges’ most recent books are The New Middle East: Protest and Revolution in the Arab World (Cambridge University Press, January 2014) and Obama and the Middle East: The End of America’s Moment? (Palgrave Macmillan, September 2013). On the ten-year anniversary of 9/11, Oxford University Press released Gerges’ book, The Rise and Fall of Al Qaeda.

Making sense of the Islamic State: An Organic Crisis in Arab Politics [Audio]

Speaker(s): Professor Michael Cox | We have been told for years that war between great powers is a thing of the past: something that has been consigned into that proverbial dustbin of history. Yet today serious writers and influential strategic thinkers in the USA and China are now suggesting that war in East Asia is a very real possibility as China rises - and becomes more assertive - and the United States supported by its Asian allies seeks to limit China’s reach. But how real is the danger of war? Is this just wild speculation by old style thinkers who have not caught up with globalization? Or is the threat real? In this debate between two experts we shall seek to answer these difficult but important questions.

When Will America and China go to war? [Audio]

Since the death of Michael Brown in Ferguson, MO, last year, the U.S. has seen the growth of a new social movement that has focused national attention on policing tactics, criminal justice, and the continued health and social inequalities confronting black Americans today. Legislation that would require states to notify the U.S. Justice Department of all police shootings, fatal and non-fatal, has been introduced. President Obama made an historic visit to a federal prison to draw attention to the need for criminal justice reform. This Forum explored these efforts and other policy shifts over the past year, looking at what has — or has not — occurred in addressing these serious problems facing black Americans in today’s policing policies, the operation of the criminal justice system, and the continued presence of inequitable health and social conditions.
This discussion built upon a February 2015 Forum production that examined the intersection of race with policing practices, neighborhood environments, educational and employment opportunities, and other factors that impact health. We reconvened that panel of public health, social justice and legal experts to further explore their recommendations and the ongoing challenges of creating policy change.

This event was presented October 1, 2015 in Collaboration with PRI’s The World & WGBH.

Watch the entire series from The Forum at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health at www.ForumHSPH.org.

Revisiting Race, Criminal Justice and Health: What Has — and Has Not Changed — in the U.S.

Speaker(s): Mark Canning, Dr Jurgen Haacke, Shibani Mahtani | In 2010 the world saw in Myanmar both relief and opportunity when - thirteen years after Myanmar achieved ASEAN membership - political and economic reforms began, shifting Myanmar away from isolationist military rule towards civilian government. Even while the depth and degree of these reforms remain unclear, Myanmar, one of Southeast Asia's poorest and most fragile economies, has begun to see easing in its foreign relations, and international trade and investment engagements. But just as Myanmar's history has long been troubled, with one of the world's longest-running periods of ethnic strife and civil wars, from well before military rule began in 1962, so too Myanmar since 2010 has shown a chequered and fragile landscape of continued religious and ethnic conflict. This November Myanmar goes to the polls. What will determine the outcome of those general elections? How will Myanmar achieve economic success comparable to those of its ASEAN neighbours? Mark Canning is Senior Adviser at Bell Pottinger and former UK Ambasssador to Indonesia, ASEAN, Myanmar, Malaysia and Zimbabwe. Jurgen Haacke is Associate Professor of International Relations at LSE, and Centre Associate at the Saw Swee Hock Southeast Asia Centre. Shibani Mahtani (@ShibaniMahtani) is Staff Reporter at the Wall Street Journal. She is based in Yangon, and reports on Myanmar and the rest of Southeast Asia. Danny Quah (@DannyQuah) is Professor of Economics and International Development at LSE, and Director of the Saw Swee Hock Southeast Asia Centre. The Saw Swee Hock Southeast Asia Centre (@LSESEAC) is an inter-disciplinary, regionally-focused academic centre within the Institute of Global Affairs at LSE. Building on the School's deep academic and historical connections with Southeast Asia, the Centre seeks to encourage the best academic and policy research, with core focus on the social context of the region.

Myanmar on the Brink [Audio]

Speaker(s): Shami Chakrabarti | To mark the paperback release of On Liberty, Shami Chakrabarti will be in conversation with Conor Gearty and taking questions from the audience and Twitter. You can send your questions via Twitter to @LSELaw using #LSEShami. In On Liberty Shami explores why our fundamental rights and freedoms are paramount in upholding democracy, and how they are coming under unprecedented pressure today. Since 9/11 governments have decided that human and civil rights, and the rule of law, are often too costly, and have offered an apparently simple trade-off: greater security in exchange for less freedom. Drawing on her own life and work, and on Liberty’s campaigning on issues including privacy, 42 day detention and ASBOs, Shami shows why our rights are indispensable and looks to the future. These freedoms, for which generations have fought, both protect and empower us, and curb the power of the mighty – and what’s more, Shami warns, once gone, they will be almost impossible to recover. Shami Chakrabarti is Director of the civil liberties advocacy organisation Liberty. She was a member of the panel of the Leveson Inquiry and is Chancellor of Oxford Brookes University and an alumna of LSE. Conor Gearty (@conorgearty) is Director of the Institute of Public Affairs and Professor of Human Rights Law at LSE.  LSE Law (@lselaw) is an integral part of the School's mission, plays a major role in policy debates & in the education of lawyers and law teachers from around the world.

On Liberty: a conversation with Shami Chakrabarti [Audio]

Peiran Wei, a 2015 China and Globalization Fellow at the Ash Center for Democratic Governance and former Bloomberg reporter, describes his country as "switching gears" – in its economy, its politics, and its culture. Wei discusses attitudes towards the rising billionaire class in China, the impact of China’s capital outflow around the globe, and the importance of social stability to the Communist Party.

Don't Panic: China's Just Switching Gears | PolicyCast

The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk is delighted to host Professor Stuart J. Russell (University of California, Berkeley) 

The Long-Term Future of (Artificial) Intelligence

Abstract: The news media in recent months have been full of dire warnings about the risk that AI poses to the human race, coming from well-known figures such as Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, and Bill Gates. Should we be concerned? If so, what can we do about it? While some in the mainstream AI community dismiss these concerns, I will argue instead that a fundamental reorientation of the field is required.

Stuart Russell is one of the leading figures in modern artificial intelligence. He is a professor of computer science and founder of the Center for Intelligent Systems at the University of California, Berkeley. He is author of the textbook ‘Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach’, widely regarded as one of the standard textbooks in the field. Russell is on the Scientific Advisory Board for the Future of Life Institute and the Advisory Board of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. 

The Long-Term Future of (Artificial) Intelligence

Human-level (“general”) AI is more difficult to achieve than most people think. One key obstacle is relevance, a conceptual version of the frame problem. Another is lack of the semantic web. Yet another is the difficulty of computer vision. So artificial general intelligence (AGI) isn’t on the horizon. Possibly, it may never be achieved. No AGI means no Singularity.

Even so, there’s already plenty to worry about—and future AI advances will add more. Areas of concern include unemployment, computer companions, and autonomous robots (some, military). Worries about the (illusory) Singularity have had the good effect of waking up the AI community (and others) to these dangers. At last, they are being taken seriously.

Professor Margaret Boden is a world-leading academic in the study of intelligence, both artificial and otherwise. She is is Research Professor of Cognitive Science at the Department of informatics at the University of Sussex, where her work embraces the fields of artificial intelligence, psychology, philosophy, cognitive and computer science. She was the founding-Dean of Sussex University’s School of Cognitive and Computing Sciences, a pioneering centre for research into intelligence and the mechanisms underlying it — in humans, other animals, or machines. The School’s teaching and research involves an unusual combination of the humanities, science, and technology.

Professor Boden has also been an important participant in the recent international discussions over the long-term impacts of AI. She was a member of the AAAI’s 08/09 Presidential Panel on long-term AI futures (http://www.aaai.org/Organization/presidential-panel.php), and also took part in the recent Puerto Rico conference on the Future of AI, co-organised by CSER (http://futureoflife.org/misc/ai_conference); she is therefore uniquely well-placed to discuss near- and long-term prospects in AI. 

Human - Level AI- Is It Looming Or Illusory?

In the coming century, the greatest threats to human survival may come from our own technological developments. However, if we can safely navigate the pitfalls, the benefits that technology promises are enormous. A philosopher, an astronomer, and an entrepreneur have come together to form the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. The goal: to bring a fraction of humanity's talents to bear on the task of ensuring our long-term survival. In this lecture, Huw Price, Martin Rees and Jaan Tallinn will outline humanity's greatest challenge: surviving the 21st Century.

Professor Huw Price (University of Cambridge)
Lord Martin Rees (Astronomer Royal)
Jaan Tallinn (Co-founder of Skype) 

Existential Risk: Surviving the 21st Century

Will We Cause Our Own Extinction? Natural versus Anthropogenic Extinction Risks

How will humanity go extinct? Is it more likely to be from natural causes such as an asteroid impact or anthropogenic causes such as a nuclear war? Using the fossil record, we can place a rough upper bound on the probability of human extinction from natural causes: all natural causes put together have less than a 1% chance of causing human extinction each century, and probably less than 0.1%. In contrast, it is very difficult to put upper or lower bounds on the chance of extinction from anthropogenic causes. In this talk, Dr Toby Ord advance an argument that anthropogenic causes currently produce ten or more times as much extinction risk as the natural causes, and shows how this suggests that we should prioritise the reduction of anthropogenic extinction risks over natural ones.

About the speaker:

Toby Ord is a Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University & Oxford Martin School. He works on theoretical and practical questions concerning population ethics, global priorities, existential risk and new technologies, and recently contributed a report on Managing Existential Risk from Emerging Tehnologies to the Chief Scientific Advisor’s annual report for the UK government. Dr Ord’s concern for current and future generations also led him to found the orgnanisation Giving What We Can. 

Will We Cause Our Own Extinction?

Writers who speculate about the future of artificial intelligence (AI) and its attendant risks often caution against anthropomorphism, the tendency to ascribe human-like characteristics to something non human. An AI that is engineered from first principles will attain its goals in ways that would be hard to predict, and therefore hard to control, especially if it is able to modify and improve on its own design. However, this is not the only route to human-level AI. An alternative is to deliberately set out to make the AI not only human-level but also human-like. The most obvious way to do this is to base the architecture of the AI on that of the human brain. But this path has its own difficulties, many pertaining to the issue of consciousness. Do we really want to create an artefact that is not only capable of empathy, but also capable of suffering? 

Minds Like Ours: An Approach To AI Risk

“Risks and benefits of gain-of-function experiments in potentially pandemic pathogens. How should we evaluate them, and what alternatives exist?”

Professor Derek Smith, Professor of Infectious Disease Informatics at Cambridge, gave a response.

Abstract: "A growing trend in experimental virology has been the modification of influenza viruses that are antigenically novel to, and virulent in humans, such that these variant viruses are readily transmissible in mammals, including ferrets which are thought to be the best animal model for influenza infection. Novel, contagious, virulent viruses are potential pandemic pathogens in that their accidental or malevolent release into the human population could cause a pandemic. This talk will describe the purported benefits of such studies, arguing that these are overstated; estimate the magnitude of the risk they create, argue for the superiority of alternative scientific approaches on both safety and scientific grounds, and propose an ethical framework in which such experiments should be evaluated. The talk will also explore recent developments following the pause in funding for this research announced by the United States Government in October, and steps towards the risk-benefit analysis called for by the announcement"

Professor Lipsitch is a professor of epidemiology and the Director of the Centre for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard University. He is one of the founders of the Cambridge Working group, which calls for a “quantitative, objective and credible assessment of the risks, potential benefits, and opportunities for risk mitigation” of gain of function experiments in potentially pandemic pathogen strains.

For more on the scientific debate, see “Gain-of-function experiments: time for a real debate”. 

Risks and benefits of gain-of-function experiments in potentially pandemic pathogens

Don't Wanna Know

Don't Wanna Know (Total Ape Remix) [feat. Kendrick Lamar]

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