Jeffrey Mayberry and Samuel Lau cover the Nov. 1-5 week’s rise in equities, credit, a surprising easing in the 10-year Treasury yield (3:10) and slight weaknesses in Bitcoin and commodities. Notwithstanding a hiccup in commodities, Jeff sees a bullish case for the asset class. Commenting on oil’s consistent closes above $80 a barrel (7:19), he calls recent talk of $100 oil “a little far-fetched, but certainly $90 seems like it could happen depending on how supply comes out.” Then they turn to the week’s macro news, including strong readings for both ISMs:  the Institute for Supply Chain Management’s reports on the manufacturing and service sectors of the U.S. economy (10:38). 
For the Topic of the Week, Jeff and Sam turn to the Nov. 3 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), including Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference following that session of the FOMC (15:14). The podcast cohosts evaluate the Fed’s guidance on the expected pace of future tapering of the central bank’s asset purchases, including in the light of an “offsetting” volume in U.S. Treasury issuance. They poke fun at Powell’s press remarks (20:06), which were filled with examples of Yoda-like “circular logic,” “dancing around” the Fed’s meaning of “maximum employment.” Powell, they observe, seems to have learned the inside-the-beltway art of saying nothing. That said, Jeff and Sam compliment the Fed chairman for managing to message a two-month forward view on the pace of the Fed’s tapering without jarring the financial markets.

MMM Episode 40: ISMs Big-ism’s, a Taper Pacer and Powell Channeling Yoda

Monday Morning Minutes