After running down healthy market returns and the July 25-29 week’s macro news, DoubleLine’s Sam Lau and Eric Dhall, a trader and quantitative analyst on the firm’s Cross Asset team who is subbing for Jeff Mayberry, review the July Federal Open Market Committee meeting and press conference by Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell (31:29). Sam and Eric break down the economic environment that spurred what Powell called the second of back-to-back “unusually large” 75 basis-point rate hikes, and they also discuss the backdrop that could bring a third such hike in September. Sam and Eric then discuss Powell’s adept Q&A dance performance (36:01). The Fed chair revealed that no more forward guidance would be coming from the agency this year, and Powell did concede he does not think we are in a recession. The market response was mostly positive.

A strong final week, lifted by earnings, boosted the S&P 500 Index on the month (1:53), with consumer discretionary the top performer for the month and communication staples the biggest laggard. In fixed income (5:28), U.S. Treasury yields from the two-year to the 10-year closed the month under 3%. Commodities were up on the month, with natural gas a notable performer (9:26). Over in Macro Land (14:05), GDP data spurred more public debate on recession status.

The week of Aug. 1-5 will be another busy one (41:55), including home price data and possibly market-moving nonfarm payroll numbers.

MMM Episode 76: Backing Out of Forward Guidance

Monday Morning Minutes