DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeffrey Mayberry and Samuel Lau welcome back the NFL and then tackle a rough Sept. 2-6 run for the markets, including lots of red across equities (1:09); fixed income (3:04); and commodities (4:39), with even gold feeling the squeeze. Over in Macro Land (6:03), Jeff and Sam review the prints impacting the market volatility, including ISM manufacturing and labor force reports, and what those numbers might mean for potential Fed moves at September’s FOMC meeting. As their Topic of the Week (12:50), they take a look at the possible de-inversion of the long-inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve as represented by the differential of the two- and 10-year Treasury yields (“2s10s”).* Jeff and Sam look at the six previous recession periods dating back to 1980 and how the 2s10s de-inversion fits into those recessions’ timelines. Next week (23:58), Jeff and Sam will be looking at the last batch of inflation and other metrics before the Fed convenes its FOMC meeting. This episode was recorded Sept. 6, 2024, before market close. 

*For more on 2s10s and the inverted Treasury yield curve, check out:

Episode 107: Timing the Lead Times of the Treasury Yield Curve

Episode 52: Yield Curve Flattening as an Economic Indicator

Rough Market Week Amid (Another) Emerging Recession Signal (E181)

Monday Morning Minutes