184-118=60.9% =$58,300

Dunning–Kruger Effect

This is the best-known term.

It refers to a cognitive bias where people with low ability in a domain overestimate their competence, often because they lack the knowledge to recognize their own mistakes.

It doesn’t necessarily involve delusions, but it explains why someone might think they’re much more skilled at decision-making than they really are.

Illusion of Superiority (Optimism Bias)

Sometimes called the “better-than-average effect.”

People consistently rate their own decision-making, intelligence, or skills as above average, even when objective measures show otherwise.

3.Illusion of Superiority (Optimism Bias)

Delusional Disorder / Grandiosity (Clinical Context)

When the overestimation of ability moves beyond bias and into fixed false beliefs that resist contrary evidence, it becomes clinical.

In psychiatry, this would be described as grandiose delusions, a symptom sometimes seen in bipolar disorder or schizophrenia.

4.

Over coming -Overconfidence Bias (Decision Science / Finance)

In economics and behavioral finance, “overconfidence bias” is the specific term for people placing too much faith in their own judgments, leading to poor decisions and risky behavior.

hawthorne Effective -

✅ If you mean a psychological bias → Dunning–Kruger effect or overconfidence bias.

✅ If you mean a clinical, delusional state → grandiose delusion




The Solution

Strategy

- Transparency

- Information flow

- Exploit market inefficiencies

- Return To the mean

-Arbitrage

-Common Sense

Collaboration

-Law of opposites



Crack The NFL Code Hawthorne Effect Avoid Delusion Of Grandeur Week 14 "Learn From Losses"

Ask yourself / who is making you money? 

“We make sure that people do not get taken advantage of by the Sports Betting market and industry” 



The ESBC Sports Betting Podcast is a podcast focused on sports betting and handicapping, hosted by Steve "ESBC Guru" and "The Prognosticator." The podcast features
quantifiable value of all the games for free with logic. 

Then feature  discussions on NFL, College Football, , College Basketball, major horse racing and NBA Playoffs  as analysis of betting trends and strategies. 

The hosts offer insights and predictions on upcoming games and events, with the goal of helping listeners make informed decisions when placing bets. 

The podcast also includes guest interviews with experts in the sports betting industry, and occasional episodes covering topics such as bankroll management and sports betting psychology. 

The ESBC Sports Betting Podcast is available on various podcast platforms, including Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Google Podcasts.

Bet The Process This is the CNBC Bloomberg Fox Business Of Sportsbetting

Making the lives of Sports fans better by giving them free actionable complete comprehensive information on every game to build their bank rolls 

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Impossible to process all the information without collaboration

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Exactly one drink on us when you see you at the Sports Book 

In addition we teach you business and financial concepts 

70% Winning percentage is our historical average  - 52.5% is break even:
We provide  NFL NBA College Football Major League Baseball Sports betting  For Free
 Full Transparency  picks on a live spreadsheet before the games 
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 Edutainment 
We interview NFL And upper level College Football and basketball coaches to get insight into the sports we cover 

We Use Business & Financial Concepts To Monetize Inefficiencies In The Sports Betting  Market

We Manifest making money watching Sports having fun
Raw Honest Educated Real Talk 

52% is break even. We are at 70 to 80%.  Very few others are. And those who achieve that percentage do not share every pick for free; on all the games 

Consistent profit; we multiply money: giving us the the benefit of compounding interest on our money or bank roll. The gap between 52.5% and 70 to 80% 

NO RECESSION ZONE - We have benefit from this process for 12 years. My wife only buys gas through betting money
We are the “real” Bloomberg ,CNBC and Fox Business Of Sports-betting 

For Free Full Transparency  picks on a live spreadsheet before the games
Went to high school with Florida State Football color man William Floyd who won a National title at Florida State & then a Super Bowl with Jerry Rice and Steve Young with the San Francisco 49ers 

And Tom Carter NFLPA won a national title with Lou Holtz and played 10 years in the NFL:

Crack The NFL Code Hawthorne Effect Avoid Delusion Of Grandeur Week 14 "Learn From Losses"

ESBC NFL & SportsBetting Finance Education Network