In this project we propose a framework to tackle conflict prevention, an issue which has received interest in several policy areas. A key challenge of conflict forecasting for prevention is that outbreaks of conflict in previously peaceful countries are rare events and therefore hard to predict. To make progress in this hard problem, this project summarizes more than five million newspaper articles using a topic model. The topics are then fed into a random forest to predict conflict risk. We are currently advancing our research agenda in two directions. First, we are predicting conflict not only at the country, but also at the local level while taking into consideration geo-spatial features of conflict. Second, we are integrating our predictions into a framework in which a decision maker decides on the optimal timing of interventions to minimize the total cost of conflict and intervention. This presentation will give an overview of the work in progress.

"Predicting Conflict" with Christopher Rauh, University of Cambridge

NOVAFRICA is a Knowledge Center of Nova School of Business and Economics of the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, dedicated to promoting Sustainable Economic Development.
NOVAFRICA operates since 2011  producing applied research on sub-Saharan Africa, where it has collaborated with a number of public authorities, private companies and local organizations. A mission that is aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) defined by United Nations to be a "blueprint to achieve a better and more sustainable future for all“. Since its creation, NOVAFRICA has been using pioneering social experimentation methodologies with data collection on the ground and in proximity to communities.
Only in this way is it possible to assess the real impact of measures and policies to be implemented in order to reduce poverty, promote social integration and provide equal opportunities for all.
NOVAFRICA is the only center in Europe to do this type of applied research through randomized controlled trials.

"Predicting Conflict" with Christopher Rauh, University of Cambridge

NOVAFRICA Sustainable Development Talks