This week, the United States approved a new weapons package for Ukraine, while representatives from Russian and Ukraine agreed to a new round of prisoner exchanges. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. signed new trade deals with Japan and the Philippines, while EU representatives met with Chinese President Xi Jinping amid simmering trade tensions. In the Middle East, EU and Iranian officials discussed recent sanctions threats against Tehran, while U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff met with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer to discuss the release of hostages from Hamas.

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/wp-admin/post.php?post=27490&action=edit

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: U.S. Strikes Trade Deals With Japan and Philippines

This week, several countries, including Canada, India, and other major economies, continued to negotiate with the U.S. ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline to make a trade deal, as the European Union and Asian nations including South Korea reached agreements. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with a Chinese delegation in Stockholm, where both sides agreed to extend bilateral trade negotiations. In the Middle East, several countries have announced they would recognize Palestine as a state in the upcoming U.N. General Assembly in September, while the U.S. imposed additional sanctions targeting Iran. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, U.S. President Donald Trump reduced the timeline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire from 50 to 10 days, while the Ukrainian parliament passed legislation restoring the independence of anti-corruption bodies after facing international and domestic backlash.

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250801/

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/




Global Hotspots: U.S. Trade Deadline Takes Center Stage

In this episode of the Bridging the Gap Podcast, Rachel Nelson sits down with Shadin Nassar and Sasha Ghosh-Siminoff from the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America to discuss the impacts of Israel’s occupation and settlement enterprise on Palestinian Christians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem and how that has contributed to the exodus of the community from the region.

Bridging the Gap: Palestinian Christians - A Dwindling Community in the Holy Land

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose strong economic sanctions against Russia ahead of an expected meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the Middle East, Israel’s State Security Cabinet approved a plan by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to occupy the whole of the Gaza Strip, while the U.S. is set to take over aid operations in the territory. In the Indo-Pacific, Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on India for its purchases of Russian oil, while Thailand and Cambodia signed a ceasefire deal. In global trade, reciprocal tariffs against U.S. trading partners went into effect, with threats of additional tariffs remaining on several key partners, including the European Union.

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250808/                                          

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Trump to Meet Putin Next Week; U.S. Global Tariffs Take Effect

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump prepared for his upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, holding calls with European leaders, and warning that Russia may face severe consequences if negotiations falter. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and China have agreed to extend the deadline for the mutual reimposition of tariffs by another 90 days as negotiations continue. Beijing has insisted the talks must address U.S. removal of advanced tech export controls. In the Middle East, Israel continued preparations to launch a campaign to occupy Gaza while Iran expressed willingness to consider resuming  nuclear negotiations with the U.S. under certain conditions.

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250815/
                    
Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: All Eyes on Trump-Putin Meeting in Alaska

This week, U.S. President Donald Trump held meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and key European leaders to advance a peace deal with Russia, while Russian attacks continued across Ukraine. In the Indo-Pacific, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi travelled to India for trade talks as bilateral relations thawed, while Trump threatened to impose tariffs on semiconductor imports within the coming week. In the Middle East, Israeli forces captured the outskirts of Gaza City as the campaign to fully occupy the city began, while Iran held its first naval drills since its June war with Israel.

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250822/                                             

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: U.S. Coordinates Security Guarantees for Ukraine with Europe

In this episode of Strategic Crossroads, host Zara Farouk sits down with journalist and analyst Wladimir van Wilgenburg to unpack the landmark March agreement between the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Syrian government. Together they explore what this deal means for Kurdish self-rule, the future of gender parity in governance, and the mounting pressures on Syrian minority communities such as the Druze.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not an official policy or position of New Lines Institute.

Between Autonomy and Authority: Syria’s New Power Balance After the SDF–Damascus Deal

In this episode of the Contours Lebanese Logic Podcast, host Faysal Itani sits down with Non-Resident Senior Fellow Dania Arayssi. Together, they discuss the recent effort by the Lebanese government and military to disarm Hezbollah, including how likely the effort is to succeed, and what the future landscape of power looks like in the country.

Lebanese Logic: Hezbollah On the Outs

This week in the Middle East, France, Germany, and the U.K. triggered a mechanism to reimpose sanctions against Iran following Tehran’s noncompliance with nuclear inspections, while Israel intensified shelling in Gaza City ahead of its anticipated occupation. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump played host to his South Korean counterpart at the White House, while Seoul called for strengthening ties with China. In Ukraine, Russian forces pushed farther into Ukrainian territory and continued their bombing campaign as the U.S. weighed security guarantees for Ukraine. U.S. tariffs of 50% on Indian imports went into effect, while Mexico announced plans to raise tariffs on China.

Read the full Weekly Forecast Monitor here: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/week-20250829/                                            

Marxist Arrow by Twin Musicom is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Global Hotspots: Iran Faces European Nuclear Snapback Sanctions

New Lines Institute focuses on issues at the intersection of U.S. foreign policy and global geopolitics.

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Between Autonomy and Authority: Syria’s New Power Balance After the SDF–Damascus Deal

New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy

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