U.S., China agree to substantial tariff cuts, Hamas says it will release last U.S. hostage From Gaza, and small cities for remote workers who love the great outdoors.

This Morning with Gordon Deal May 12, 2025

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IFPRI-AMIS Seminar Series | IFPRI Policy Seminar
2025 Outlook for Wheat, Maize, and Soybean Crops
Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS)
May 13, 2025

Global grain and oilseed markets are facing great uncertainty as producers in the northern hemisphere complete their spring plantings. While some dryness has affected winter crop regions in both North America and Europe, sowing conditions remain favorable. Market participants are closely observing rapid policy developments related to tariffs and possible retaliatory measures. The changing trade landscape will also affect the overall macroeconomic environment, with impacts expected on energy prices, exchange rates, and growth prospects, and further implications for agricultural production and trade.

Opening Remarks
Joseph Glauber, Research Fellow Emeritus, IFPRI

Presentations
Overview of macroeconomic prospects: John Baffes, Senior Agriculture Economist, Development Economics, World Bank
Overview of crop conditions: Brian Barker, Principal Faculty Specialist, University of Maryland; GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for AMIS lead, and Global Crop Monitor lead
Overview of wheat, maize and soybeans: Seth Meyer, Chief Economist, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)

Discussion

Moderated by Monika Tothova, Senior Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Secretary
Di Yang, Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
Erin Collier, Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
Nathan Kemp, Senior Economist, International Grains Council (IGC)

Moderator
Monika Tothova, Senior Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Secretary

Links:

More about this Event: https://www.ifpri.org/event/2025-outlook-for-wheat-maize-and-soybean-crops/

Subscribe IFPRI Insights newsletter and event announcements at www.ifpri.org/content/newsletter-subscription


2025 Outlook for Wheat, Maize, and Soybean Crops

The landscape surrounding tariffs and international trade has been at the forefront of conversations since President Donald Trump came back into office in January.
Within the last week, the U.S. and China agreed to a temporary pause on triple-digit tariffs as the two countries work to negotiate a trade deal.
Despite the pause, the administration’s tariff policies and trade negotiations have led to increasing uncertainty for businesses. 
To get a better understanding of tariffs and their impact on businesses in Connecticut, Ulbrich Steel board chair Chris Ulbrich joined CBIA president and CEO Chris DiPentima May 5 on the CBIA BizCast. 
Ulbrich Steel imports about 30% of its products from outside the U.S. including China and Europe. 
“We’re trying hard to figure this all out,” Ulbrich said. 
And Ulbrich added that the economy is just starting to feel the increased costs from the tariffs.
Ulbrich said the company recently shipped metal from China at $100 a pound, but by the time it reached the U.S. the actual cost was closer to $300 a pound. 
He added that the only company in the U.S. that makes the product sells it for $400 a pound, leaving companies with a difficult decision to make. 
“Then the trick is—the domestic producers—are they going to tailor what they need?” Ulbrich asked. “Will we start seeing them increasing their prices?”
Ulbrich added that they are currently “a couple million dollars behind” with costs that haven’t moved down the supply chain. 
But he said the added costs of tariffs will impact customers. 
Ulbrich said the way their supply chain flows, it can take six-to-eight weeks for them to bring in raw materials and another six-to-eight weeks to get it out of their facility to the customer. 
“You’ve got to make the product,” Ulbrich said. “You’ve got to collect the money from the customer.”
Ulbrich said adding to the unknowns is what happens to the products they ship to China from Connecticut.
“All our orders are basically on hold because the customer, the Chinese customers, do not want to pay 145% tariff on our product,” he said at the time of the recording. 
Ulbrich said he can see positives from Trump administration trade policies. 
“We are seeing reshoring,” he said. “People want to buy from the U.S. So there are jobs coming back.”
Still, Ulbrich said that reshoring brings its own set of challenges and uncertainty.
A lot of the materials they use are not made here, noting that 90% of stainless steel rod is imported. 
“You don’t build a billion-dollar steel mill here overnight,” he said. 
Ulbrich also said that a big concern is finding the workforce needed to take on the potential new demand. 
“Even if all this works, and they negotiate great treaties this week and in the months ahead, and more reasonable tariffs are put in, we need a workforce,” he said. 
“Where are the people going to come from?”
With 82,000 open jobs, Connecticut is already dealing with a labor shortage. 
Ulbrich said the state can help by addressing important issues like housing, workers’ compensation, and finding ways to develop and get polluted sites back on municipal tax rolls. 
“I’ve heard Gov. Lamont say, ‘76,000 people, if we can find jobs for those people, that’s 76,000 people paying taxes,’ and it’s wonderful,” Ulbrich said. 
As the tariff situation unfolds, Ulbrich said its important for business leaders to meet with their employees regularly.
“Everybody knows,” he said. “They see on the plant floor maybe the jobs are half what they used to be.
“Full communication, I think, helps so much.”
Related Links:
Ulbrich 
Website: https://www.ulbrich.com/   
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ulbrich-stainless-steels-&-special-metals/ 
Chris Ulbrich LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-ulbrich-66a21b11/ 

CBIA
Website: https://www.cbia.com/ 
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cbia/

‘Trying Hard’ to Figure Out Tariffs

This special mid-week recording of the pod was scheduled so we could speak to spectrum policy consultant Dave Wright while he was in town. Scott starts by asking Dave why operators and the industry associations who represent them are constantly begging for more spectrum in frequency bands that have limited utility. That conversation goes on to cover the competing needs of the cellular and wifi worlds before they conclude with a look at evolving US trade policy towards China.

Spectrum,  wifi and US vs China

Leslie Marshall Show - A Non-Partisan View on U.S. Tariffs with AAM President Scott Paul

compilation of TJR motivational clips to benefit your trading journey and psychology

TJR Motivation

This episode features sharp commentary on the current geopolitical landscape, exploring why China continues to thrive despite the chaotic shifting of US policies. 

Our friend Carl Zha brings his vast knowledge of China and delves into the shifting global dynamics with the US. He and Steve examine the absurdity of the US government’s approach to trade, particularly the impact of tariffs and sanctions on its own economy, while China strategically positions itself as a rising power.  

Steve likens the US to a schoolyard bully caught off-guard, while Carl offers insights into China’s long-term planning and adaptability in the face of external pressures. The discussion touches on various aspects, from economic strategies to cultural perceptions. They engage in a broad critique of the US leadership’s focus on military dominance while it fails to invest in domestic infrastructure.  

Carl Zha hosts Silk and Steel, a weekly podcast discussing history, culture, and current events of China and the Silk Road. Support him at patreon.com/silknsteel. His YouTube channel is https://www.youtube.com/@CarlZha. 

Trade Route China with Carl Zha

Once a week we get together in a studio somewhere in London to take the piss out of telecoms and technology for an hour or so.

Wake up with "This Morning: America's First News."  Gordon Deal and news anchor Nicole Murray go beyond the headlines with the day’s first look at news from the U.S. and around the world; bringing a lively blend of intelligent information, humor, and expert analysis to morning radio.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries. Established in 1975, IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 50 countries. It is a research center of CGIAR, a worldwide partnership engaged in agricultural research for development.

The best progressive talk right here, on demand. Always Progressive, Always On!

Macroeconomics has never been so ... delish!  Macro and Cheese explores the progressive movement through the lens of Modern Monetary Theory, with hot and irreverent political takes, spotlights in activism, and the razor sharp musings of Real Progressives Founder and host Steve Grumbine.  The cheese will flow as experts come in for a full, four course deep dive into the hot queso. 

Comfort Food for Thought!

A podcast for the business-minded in Connecticut. Interviews consist of business and community leaders who are shaping the future of Connecticut’s economy. The CBIA BizCast provides new content every other week, introduces members of the business community, and tells stories about how businesses are innovating and growing in Connecticut!

BizCast provides new content every other week, introduces members of CBIA staff, and tells stories about how businesses are innovating and growing in Connecticut!

New tracks tagged #trade