In this episode, Carole Faber, Anne Marie Garavaglia, and Beau Baker talk with Trepp’s chief executive officer Annemarie DiCola, Esq. about:

Trepp’s entry into the real estate capital markets in the late 70s and its evolution over 40 years into the leading trustworthy independent reporter of CREF data

An inside look at Trepp’s data analysis and reporting processes

How the past 15 months parallel the past 15 years in real estate capital markets, how this recent market shift is different, and how you can propel your CRE company to the next level 

What Trepp has done since 2001 to get ahead of the pandemic almost two decades later 

A valuable breakdown by asset class of loan delinquencies, market status, and outlook (including an upbeat view of office as an asset class)  
 
Recent changes in CRE valuations.

Episode 3: Talking with Trepp’s Chief Executive Officer Annemarie DiCola

In a special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we are joined by Bryan Donohoe, Partner and Co-head of Ares US Real Estate. Bryan breaks down the world of debt markets, lending, and originations. We break down past market disruptions, CRE fundamentals, and the structural changes in the CRE debt markets.

*This episode was recorded prior to the December 2023 Fed meeting.

Episode Notes:
- Background (1:00)
- Where are the debt markets today? (6:32)
- Is there optimism for CRE? (10:36)
- Geographies and property types positioned for success (12:01)
- Appetite for office? (16:06)
- Market outlook (20:15)
- What does Ares do best? (30:49)
- The onset of a new credit cycle (31:30)

Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG

Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.

Follow Trepp:

Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp
Facebook: www.facebook.com/TreppLLC

Structural Changes in CRE Debt Markets, Ares' Bryan Donohoe Helps Us Sort it Out

237. Structural Changes in CRE Debt Markets, Ares' Bryan Donohoe Helps Us Sort it Out

This week, some of the biggest headlines came from overseas. In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we discuss if any moves by Canada and Europe will change anything for the Fed. We also put our professor hats on to provide some insight into delinquencies, foreclosures, modifications, and more. Stick around as we break down the stories we're tracking in office, retail, lodging, and mixed-use. Tune in now.

This episode is sponsored by Marketplace: https://rimarketplace.com/?utm_source=credirect&utm_medium=podcast_paid&utm_campaign=june2024

Episode Notes:
- Interest rates around the globe (0:23)
- Informational technology outflows, Dollar Tree news, American dividend earnings (4:50)
- CMBS delinquencies decline? (8:26)
- CRE loan losses (11:54)
- Office stories (15:27)
- Foreclosures 101 (24:19)
- Retail news (29:53)
- Modification deep dive (33:20)
- Mixed-use appraisal (43:37)
- Shoutouts (45:15)


Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG

Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.

Follow Trepp:
Twitter: www.twitter.com/TreppWire
LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/company/trepp

Trepp

261.  Will Fed Follow Canadian & European Rate Cuts? Foreclosures 101, Modification Insights

Most CRE landlords who missed their April 1st payments have a 30 day grace period, but our preliminary data shows that 11%+ of CMBS loans will be 30 days delinquent when that grace period elapses, which would surpass the highest level hit during the Great Recession. We discuss the effect of oil prices on the broader market, the coming wave of distressed assets, forbearance requests, the week in retail and CMBX, CLO downgrades and more.

Episode Notes:

How will the drop in oil prices affect the broader market? (0:47)
Revisiting the bet for and against CMBX (5:15)
Assessing the scale of CMBS borrower relief requests (8:30)
This week in retail store closures (15:32)
What happens when tenants are allowed to break their lease? (19:20)
The revival of TALF in the current COVID-19 economy (24:53)
How are CLO managers dealing with leveraged loan downgrades? (31:59)
Where do we go from here? (36:33)

5. The Coming Wave of Distressed Assets, the Week in Retail and CMBX, More CLO Downgrades

This week, we discuss the rise in CRE delinquencies and the new way to interpret the numbers, what the smart money is looking at, the ongoing challenges in lodging, and signs of life in the corporate loan market, among many other things.

Episode Notes:

The scorecard for the CMBS and CRE industries (0:58)
A look at REIT earnings (6:20)
The rise in CMBS delinquencies (11:59)
What the smart money is looking at (13:33)
New numbers from Fannie and Freddie (16:04)
What's the future of co-working? (19:22)
Lessons for CRE from this week's tech earnings (23:24)
Digging into the lodging sector (26:56)
Signs of life in the corporate loan market (29:57)
Mother's Day recommendations (33:57)

6. The Rise in CRE Delinquencies, What Smart Money is Looking at, Signs of Life in Corporate Loans

More than half of the states are now moving toward a reopening, but we’re still dealing with news of increased infections and economic data that tells us we have a long way to go toward a recovery. Jobless claims fell slightly to 3.2 million last week and the markets reacted positively to that slight decline. In all, more than 33 million are out of work and with lockdowns lifted, all eyes in the CRE world are on retail and lodging  performance.

In this week’s episode, we discuss how we assess CRE risk moving forward, the next steps in the recovery for hotels, the future of retail and the Amazon effect, takeaways from Warren Buffett and Sam Zell, performance in the corporate loan market and more.

Episode Notes:
Takeaways from this week’s macroeconomic data (0:55)
Words of wisdom from the Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffett and Sam Zell (4:03)
Retailer bankruptcies keep coming (8:13)
How can brick and mortar continue to compete with Amazon? (10:51)
Hotel performance and what happens next? (16:58)
Assessing CRE risk moving forward (23:17)
Looking at performance in the corporate loan market (30:15)
The human impact of the COVID-19 crisis (35:04)
Coping in our work from home environments (38:44)

7. Assessing CRE Risk, The Next Steps for Hotel Loans, The Future of Retail and the Amazon Effect

We welcome Lonnie Hendry, VP of CRE Product Management at Trepp, to examine the impact of COVID-19 on CRE property valuations. We also discuss fresh servicer data that shows increases in hotel and retail delinquencies, new CMBS issuance and what it means for the market, commercial mortgage investment returns for life insurance companies, and revisions to the TALF program to include a broader range of leveraged loans.

Episode Notes:
New CMBS issuance and what it means for the market (2:12)
More store closures and what happens next (4:31)
Fresh data on hotel and retail loan delinquencies (9:00)
What impact does this market dislocation have on CRE property values? (16:23)
Looking at the drop in commercial mortgage returns for life insurance companies (29:59)
How much will the TALF program revisions help the leveraged loan market? (32:22)
The outlook for college football (and more importantly, student housing) this fall (35:53)

8. The Impact of COVID-19 on CRE Valuations, the Next Wave of Delinquencies, New CMBS Issuance

We dig into bets on the CMBX index, retail performance and store closings, the new wave of CMBS servicer data for lodging and retail, self-storage’s status as a “recession-resistant business,” the outlook for student housing, and the quality of leveraged loan covenants. 

Episode Notes:
A look at retail performance and store closings (2:30)
The new wave of CMBS servicer data for lodging and retail (6:49)
Digging into bets on the CMBX index (11:56)
Is self-storage a “recession-resistant business”? (22:43)
Potential student housing distress (27:00)
Has the quality of leveraged loan covenants deteriorated? (31:26)
The return of sports! (33:46)

9. Digging into CMBX and Store Closures, New Performance Data on Lodging, Retail and Multifamily

We discuss borrower relief options, the two schools of thought on the future of office space, the newest data on CMBS delinquencies, the retail consumer, the ramifications of a big CLO buyer pulling out (for now), and our excitement for the reopening of both Disney World and the NHL.

Episode Notes:

Signs of hope in the market (0:53)
CMBS delinquencies continue to rise (7:44)
How borrowers can potentially seek relief (12:33)
Where will the future retail consumer be? (14:49)
Is office-centricity a thing of the past? (27:42)
“I’m going to Disney World!” (33:07)
A big Japanese CLO buyer pulls out (for now) (37:52)
The return of the NHL (43:10)

10. Two Schools of Thought on the Future of Office, Borrower Relief Options, CRE Delinquencies

In this week's episode, the team reviews the impact (or lack thereof) of the Capitol news on financial markets. We also discuss the latest December CMBS delinquency numbers, travel and hospitality headlines, news in the office sector, and the recent retail closures. To close,  we reminisce on past CREFC events and dive into what’s to come for the year ahead.

Episode Notes:

Capitol, election, financial market update (1:10)
December CMBS delinquency numbers (7:33)
Travel headlines (9:35)
Holiday spending numbers (13:19)
News for hotels (15:39)
New leases and corporate moves in the office sector (23:50)
Retail closure news this week (32:40)
The repurposing of malls and retail (37:40)
Deals of the week (43:45)
Year-End and what's to come (52:40)

56. A Look at Travel and Hospitality News, More Retail Closures, What’s to Come for 2021

In this week’s episode, we break down what the new policies from the Biden administration could mean for CRE and finance and specifically discuss the vaccine rollout. We also talk about the big takeaways from Q4 bank earnings, the latest bank loan delinquency rates, tumbling occupancy levels in the multifamily sector, and a wave of hotel bankruptcies. Tune in to hear how we also work chicken wings, Tom Brady, and airline wine into the conversation. 

Episode Notes:
Vaccine rollout and administrative changes (0:54)
The future of policies aimed at the financial industry (5:36)
Q4 Bank earnings (12:20)
Bank CRE Delinquencies on the rise (20:10)
Falling occupancy levels in multifamily (22:00)
Wave of hotel bankruptcies and deed-in-lieus (28:00)
Office news (33:20)
Deals of the Week (36:23)

Vaccines and Vacancy, Cracks in Multifamily, Q4 Bank Earnings, Wave of Hotel Bankruptcies

59. Vaccines and Vacancy, Cracks in Multifamily, Q4 Bank Earnings, Wave of Hotel Bankruptcies

Leveraging Trepp’s market expertise and proprietary data sets, The TreppWire Podcast enables listeners to stay up-to-date on all things commercial real estate, structured finance and banking. 

Featuring Trepp subject matter experts and guests from across the industry, the weekly podcast explores how recent events have impacted both the markets and the daily lives of market participants. 

Questions or comments? Please contact us at podcast@trepp.com.

237. Structural Changes in CRE Debt Markets, Ares' Bryan Donohoe Helps Us Sort it Out

The TreppWire Podcast, A CRE Show

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