Romanian social activist Maria Guevara, who has lived a significant part of her life in France, comments on the results of the early parliamentary elections in this country. The left-wing New Popular Front emerged from the vote as the strongest party, and the left's shaky cooperation with Emmanuel Macron's camp did not allow Marine Le Pen's National Rally to take the majority. What, however, could come next? The left criticized Macron's policies and demonstrated in the streets together with thousands of French men and women who opposed pension reform or migration reform. Will it now join forces with Macron in the name of 'Republican Front', or containing the far right? Maria Guevara also comments on who votes for which of the three almost-equal political forces now competing for power in France.

Maria Guevara: France emerges from the elections divided into three

Vladimir Mitev answers Malgorzata Kulbaczewska-FIgat's questions about the continuous political crisis in Bulgaria, which is unable to form a government and its citizens are expected to vote for a 7th time in 3 years at parliamentary elections in autumn 2024. How is that political crisis felt at the everyday level of life in Bulgaria? What is the nature of the current ties between the government in Sofia and the EU institutions in Brussels? How is the political crisis impacting the regional foreign policy of Bulgaria? And to what extent could we expect new sovereignist and pro-business parties to appear in the autumn?
Vladimir Mitev explains that both Western Europe and Bulgarian society have forces that are aiming for renewal, change and reform, and others which are betting on the status quo, in which Bulgarians are not pushed to change, but neither are expected to be trouble makers at EU level. And it looks like the main face of Bulgarian stabilocracy is again having support in Bruxelles, as Ursula von der Leyen participated in his party's rally in Plovdiv before the EU elections, gave and received support from him. 
As the Bulgarian political crisis continues there are many signs that Bulgarian influence on EU level is getting smaller. Also Bulgaria has problems in doing reforms and applying the National Plan for Recovery and Resilience with significant delay. 
In Southeastern Europe there have been indications that Bulgarian neighbours don't want to negoatiate and sign agremeents with an interim government. But the cooperation in the domains of security and the defense has been going well with Romania, Greece and Turkey, perhaps because the more technocratic and security matters don't need so much support from the parties. 
As for the rumours about the appearance of new parties in the autumn, there have been some patriotic and pro-business "grassroots" initiatives that have been going on for some time. And usually when somebody accumulates social capital he/she is coopted in the political system. And it turns out he/she has been having a political conception from the very beginning inside one or another of the political segments in the country. In this case, we need to see whether the father of some new political formations would not be the president Rumen Radev, who might be well positioned if Donald J. Trump comes into the White House again.

The Bulgarian political crisis signifies among other things lack of regional and EU ambitions

The Middle East Institute's Black Sea director Iulia Joja was a guest of Cross-border Talks in the context of Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race and his endorsement of Kamala Harris. What does Biden's withdrawal mean for the Democratic and the Republic campaigns? What would be difference between a Democratic candidate (most likely Kamala Harris) and Donald Trump with regards to the transatlantic relationship, the Central and Eastern Europe and the Middle East?
Iulia Joja dissects the internal and most likely foreign policy profile of Harris and Trump and shares a number of insights about what differs them, but also about what could be very same whoever is the future American president.

Iulia Joja: Washington might force Ukraine to negotiate peace, no matter who is the new US president

Natalie Atanasova of a Bulgarian feminist, queer, anticapitalist and anti-violence Menta Space joins Cross-Border Talks to talk about the initiative and the social context in which it came into being. She speaks about everyday violence in Bulgaria, hitting women, LGBT people, migrants, Roma people, people with disabilities and other minorities. She explains that Menta Space came into being to say no to this omnipresent discrimination, bad language and violence, and that its founders intend to build a safe place and community where people can gather, exercise, learn self-defence, discuss serious topic and/or support one another in a number of ways. Menta Space is an anti-capitalist space with no entrance fees. Natalie also gives her assessment of Bulgarian political class and its nearly total indifference to the most serious social issues such as poverty or violence against women.

Menta space: fighting for Bulgaria without everyday violence and abuse

Researcher and historian Veronika Susova-Salminen, who is also co-host of Cross-Border Talks, answers Małgorzata Kulbaczewska-Figat's questions about 2024 Russia - a state on war, a state forging or strengthening alliances in the Global South, a state transforming itself in the internal dimension. Veronika Susova-Salminen comments on two diplomatic visits: the rather fruitless one of Hungarian PM Viktor Orban, and the very intensive one of Indian leader Narendra Modi, suggesting even stronger cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi. She also sums up the new laws introduced by State Duma in the recently closed session, mentioning the newest repressive measures against NGO-ses and opposition, but also a tax change which suggests both Kremlin's need to replenish the state treasury and a readiness to adjust the neoliberal flat tax policy to the current situation. Veronika also explains the importance of Election Day, scheduled this September, when Russians from a dozen of regions will elect their local governments. Although it is quite certain that the elections would hardly meet European-styled liberal democracy standards, they are still the only moment when citizens of Russia can endorse Kremlin's policy or refrain from doing so, and the Russian leaders know this too.

Inside 2024 Russia: Repressive Laws, Tax Changes and Uncertainty before Another Election Day

James Schneider - Progressive International's PR and director of James Corbyn's campaign for the 2024 UK general election - joins Cross-border Talks to offer progressive perspectives on a range of current issues: the anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim riots in the UK, the election results and policy platform of UK Labour Party leader Keir Starmer, UK-EU relations and the war in the Middle East. 
Schneider is deeply sceptical of Starmer's ability and intention to offer progressive change, and believes that he is merely offering a bit of nuance to the traditional politics of the status quo in the UK - both in the social and economic spheres and with regard to US-UK relations. Asked who was the vanguard of progressive forces in the Middle East, a region taken over by various fundamentalisms, Schneider said that the first ambition and commitment of progressive forces there should be to end the war in Gaza and stop the Israeli war machine. 
At the end of the talk, Schneider comments on Corbyn's political future, pointing to the unrelenting need for the left to organise, mobilise and fight for progressive change, no matter what the circumstances and dire straits.

Keir Starmer's 'mission' vocabulary has nothing to do with Obama's or Mazzucato's visions

Radu Magdin is a global analyst, consultant, trainer and think tanker. He worked as a honorary advisor to the Romanian Prime Minister (2014-2015) and advised the Moldovan PM (2016-2017) on a range of strategic issues, from political strategy and communications to reforms implementation and external affairs. 
In this interview The Bridge of Friendship's Vladimir Mitev speaks to Radu Magdin about a number of current strategic issues:
- the weakness of the liberal center in Germany and France and its significance for Bulgaria and Romania;
- the move of center of power in Europe towards East;
- the prospects before greater Bulgarian-Romanian cooperation;
- the issue of land borders accession to Schengen for Bulgaria and Romania;
- the expectations towards the presidential elections in Romania.
Radu Magdin believes that there are conditions for "the periphery" in the EU to grow in terms of influence and competitivity and to bring to renewal of Western Europe too. He also is optimist with regards to the future of the EU's East, including Bulgaria and Romania, while also being aware of the difficulties and obstacles before these countries' affirmation.

Radu Magdin: The trend in Europe goes eastward

Konrad Watrin is a historian, political scientist and specialist on the Middle East (PhD), who has been working as a correspondent and a teacher.

1. 00:00  The rise of neo-fascist forces in France and Germany is driven by societal polarization, historical grievances, and shifting political ideologies among young voters.
 1.1 The discussion highlights the weakening of the liberal center in France and Germany amid the rise of contentious political forces labeled as neo-fascist.
 1.2 The rise of fascist tendencies in Germany is fueled by societal polarization, historical frustrations in East Germany, and scapegoating of foreigners amid migration issues.
 1.3 The shift of young voters in some states from left-leaning to right-leaning ideologies, particularly among boys, is concerning, while young girls are increasingly leaning left.

2. 04:44  Germany grapples with housing shortages and economic instability due to refugee influx, highlighting the need for cultural identity and education for societal cohesion.

3. 08:03  Social media's rise, especially TikTok, has eroded education and trust in quality media in Germany, complicating public discourse and threatening Western democracies with both left-wing and right-wing extremism.
 3.1 A culture of extreme mistrust and ignorance towards quality media in Germany undermines informed public discourse, as people rely on superficial online content instead of engaging with in-depth journalism.
 3.2 The speaker highlights the complex threats to Western democracies, emphasizing the rising influence of left-wing extremism alongside concerns about anti-immigrant sentiments and right-wing extremism.

4. 12:40  Anti-Semitism, anti-Americanism, and the rise of the far-right AfD in Germany highlight societal tensions, complicating politics, while France's divide feels more manageable despite its extremity
 4.1 The rise of left-wing, right-wing, and Islamist threats in Germany is concerning, but there is currently no significant threat to the Constitution or charismatic leadership to incite revolution.
 4.2 The societal divide in France is more extreme, yet the climate there feels more comfortable compared to the challenging situation in Germany.

5. 19:59  Germany's political shift reflects a cautious approach to liberalism and complex relationships in Southeastern Europe, raising concerns about potential anti-democratic reactions while emphasizing the need for open societies across Europe

6. 25:51  Significant public resentment in Germany towards refugees and a shift in support for Ukraine amid tensions with Poland and investigations into the Nord Stream pipeline.

7. 29:42  Germany navigates military rearmament, social issues, and refugee support while aiding Ukraine, as Europe seeks strong leadership against autocratic regimes and complex Middle Eastern dynamics

A German liberal perspective on EU & international hot political issues: CbT speaks to Konrad Watrin

Sebastian Schäffer, director of the Vienna-based Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe, comments on the results of the 2024 Austrian parliamentary elections. He explains the context and roots of the victory of the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), pointing out that the election campaign revolved around the issues of migration and asylum seekers, Austrian neutrality and, to a lesser extent, rising prices and social issues. He comments on the likely composition of the future government, which could be a right-wing coalition, but also an alliance against the FPÖ. Schäffer also addresses the FPÖ's anti-democratic ambitions and recalls the Ibiza affair, pointing out how easily it was forgotten, at least by the far-right voters (i.e. one third of the electorate). The second part of the interview discusses Austria's future foreign policy. Historically, the Second Austrian Republic after the Second World War often proved to be a neutral ground for political negotiations and the search for agreements. Austria has served as a bridge between East and West, Western and South-Eastern Europe. But what the Freedom Party of Austria now promises is a Fortress Austria, closed to newcomers, suspicious of its neighbours, not interested in full Schengen enlargement to Romania and Bulgaria, and likely to join forces with Viktor Orban's Hungary to dismantle the rule of law in Europe. Nevertheless, as the guest on Cross-Border Talks points out, it is still unclear who exactly will govern Austria after this election, and what kind of foreign policy that government would pursue.

Keir Starmer's 'mission' vocabulary has nothing to do with Obama's or Mazzucato's visions

Cross-Border Talks

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